Happy New Year!  As we usher in 2024, let's take a practical look at what lies ahead in our local real estate landscape. Join me for a straightforward exploration of trends and forecasts shaping the Comox Valley market.

2023 Recap: Understanding Market Dynamics

The past year brought shifts influenced by rising interest rates and decreased buyer confidence. Single-family home inventory decreased by 16%, sales by 6%, and the average house price landed at $849K. Reflecting on recent years:

• 2023: $848,672
• 2022: $889,663
• 2021: $797,678
• 2020: $631,705
• 2019: $579,567

Digging into the details, 21% of single-family home sales exceeded $1M, and the $700-$800K range accounted for 25% of total sales. Notably, Comox played a significant role in 27% of sales, with Courtenay City and East Courtenay combining for 38%.

The Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB) summarizes local real estate conditions each month, providing valuable market information for single family homes, condos, townhouses, waterfront properties, acreages, and lots. Each market segment is unique to its supply and demand, pricing, and sales. I am happy to decipher and explain what these stats mean to you as a Buyer or Seller. 

Looking Ahead to 2024:

Optimism abounds for a more stable and balanced market in 2024. Analysts anticipate interest rates to stabilize in the first half of the year, potentially decreasing in the latter half. This expected reduction could breathe new life into the market, leading to a moderate price increase. The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) projects a 5% nationwide price increase, emphasizing the ongoing housing shortage.

For the Comox Valley in 2024, my predictions include:

• A gradual price increase in the third or fourth quarter with increased buyer confidence
• Overall, a robust and healthy market as buyer confidence returns.
• Busy market in the $500-$900K price threshold. 
• Multiple offers on properties with coveted locations and high demand.

The Comox Valley is poised to attract more residents as demand across Canada rises. Your dream home might just be the protagonist in the next chapter of our real estate narrative!

BC's Real Estate Policies

Recent government measures and reforms have impacted the short-term rental market, with new legislation defining short-term rentals and introducing stricter regulations and fines. Investors are adapting to changing rules, exploring mid-term rentals, and facing challenges due to the speculation and vacancy tax expansion.

A Pragmatic Approach to 2024

For those with questions or a desire to discuss specific real estate goals, I'm here to help. 

Cheers, 

Philippa Berg